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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessPricing Of Sep ECB Hike Near-Enough 50/50, Terminal Deposit Rate Pricing Shy Of 4.00%
Liquid ECB-dated OIS contracts run little changed to ~2bp firmer as core global FI markets move to fresh session lows.
- That leaves a little over 12bp of tightening showing for the Bank’s September meeting, while terminal deposit rate pricing continues to hover around the 3.95% mark.
- Near enough even odds of a 25bp hike at next month’s gathering will probably please the ECB at this point, given the heavily communicated data-dependent nature of future policy decisions.
- Core global FI swings have been in the driving seat thus far, with little actionable news flow/data for STIR market participants to trade off.
- Acting ECB Governing Council member Valimaki underscored the data-dependent nature of the Bank’s September meeting earlier today.
- Looking ahead, German regions open the monthly run of tier 1 preliminary CPI readings tomorrow, before the Eurozone data crosses on Thursday.
ECB Meeting | €STR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective €STR Rate (bp) |
Sep-23 | 3.773 | +12.2 |
Oct-23 | 3.833 | +18.2 |
Dec-23 | 3.853 | +20.2 |
Jan-24 | 3.839 | +18.8 |
Mar-24 | 3.790 | +13.9 |
Apr-24 | 3.723 | +7.2 |
Jun-24 | 3.626 | -2.5 |
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.