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Pricing Of Sep ECB Hike Near-Enough 50/50, Terminal Deposit Rate Pricing Shy Of 4.00%

STIR

Liquid ECB-dated OIS contracts run little changed to ~2bp firmer as core global FI markets move to fresh session lows.

  • That leaves a little over 12bp of tightening showing for the Bank’s September meeting, while terminal deposit rate pricing continues to hover around the 3.95% mark.
  • Near enough even odds of a 25bp hike at next month’s gathering will probably please the ECB at this point, given the heavily communicated data-dependent nature of future policy decisions.
  • Core global FI swings have been in the driving seat thus far, with little actionable news flow/data for STIR market participants to trade off.
  • Acting ECB Governing Council member Valimaki underscored the data-dependent nature of the Bank’s September meeting earlier today.
  • Looking ahead, German regions open the monthly run of tier 1 preliminary CPI readings tomorrow, before the Eurozone data crosses on Thursday.
ECB Meeting€STR ECB-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective €STR Rate (bp)
Sep-233.773+12.2
Oct-233.833+18.2
Dec-233.853+20.2
Jan-243.839+18.8
Mar-243.790+13.9
Apr-243.723+7.2
Jun-243.626-2.5
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
HomepageEuropean Central Bank (ECB) Market NewsBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
HomepageEuropean Central Bank (ECB) Market NewsBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

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