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Primary Dealer Analysts Skewed To Another Hawkish U/E Rate Surprise

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • Ahead of tomorrow's payrolls report, primary dealer analysts see a considerable skew to a hawkish surprise again here, with a median 3.4% (as opposed to 40 of 66 analysts in the overall Bloomberg survey looking for 3.5% or above).
  • 3.4% would continue to be a multi-decade low after surprisingly falling in April, and primary dealer skew has provided a good indicator in recent months.
  • This hawkish skew is supported by St Louis Fed economist Max Dvorkin telling MNI their real-time labor market index points to household employment rising a very strong 638k in May.


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