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Primary Dealers Skewed To Hawkish U/E Surprise

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • Bloomberg consensus has nonfarm payrolls growth of 230k for March, released Friday 0830ET.
  • Primary dealers see some upside risk with a median 250k, although fewer have been submitted after the latest weakness in initial claims after yesterday's miss for ADP and the ISM Services employment component (an exception being Wells Faro at 190k down from an original 240K).
  • Further within primary dealer analyst estimates, we see a skew to a hawkish surprise from the u/e rate at 3.5% (helped following an unrounded 3.57% in Feb) and smaller hawkish skew from the AHE bouncing back after 0.24% M/M.


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