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Private Sector Payrolls Stall in Q4

FRANCE DATA
MNI (London)

FRANCE Q4 FLASH PRIVATE SECTOR PAYROLLS 0.0% Q/Q (FCST +0.3%); Q3 +0.6% Q/Q

  • French private sector employment stalled in Q4 in the prelim data, against expectations of a +0.3% q/q expansion and a +0.6% q/q uptick in Q3.
  • Net job creations was a modest +3.0k in the fourth quarter, after +119.1k in Q3 and seven consecutive quarters of increases.
  • France unemployment data is due next week, likely to edge up from the near-record low of 7.3% recorded in Q3 as the economy slows into year-end. The labour market will continue to remain buoyant compared its pre-pandemic levels.
  • The ECBs most recent December projections have penciled in an uptick in unemployment from 6.6% (Dec) to 6.7% for the bloc in 2023, slowing to 6.6% in 2025. This remains historically low, underpinning confidence in the ECB's tightening cycle.
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