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Projected Rate Cut Pricing Already Starting to Recede

US TSYS
  • Treasuries look to finish Monday's session steady to mixed, curves flatter with early session support in the short end evaporating as the session carried on. Quiet start to the week, lower volumes with Japan and London out for Spring holiday.
  • Projected rate cut pricing looks steady to mildly cooler vs. this morning's levels: June 2024 steady at -10% w/ cumulative rate cut -2.5bp at 5.298%, July'24 at -24% w/ cumulative at -8.5bp at 5.238%, Sep'24 cumulative -20.7bp (-22.8bp earlier), Nov'24 cumulative -30.3bp (-32.8bp earlier). Dec'24 cumulative currently -43.7bp (-47.7bp earlier).
  • Very little in the way of data all week, aside from today's Fed's Sr Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices, Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims report Thursday, UofM sentiment this Friday.
  • SLOOS survey: U.S. banks generally tightened lending standards for commercial and industrial loans in the first quarter and also reported weaker demand, citing a less favorable or more uncertain economic outlook, less tolerance for risk, and worsening of industry-specific problems,
  • Markets will be listening for Fed speakers, MN Fed Kashkari attends a fireside chat at the Milken Inst (text TBA, Q&A) Tuesday at 1130ET.
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