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Projected Rate Hike Near Steady Post-FOMC Minutes

STIR
  • Projected rate hikes into early 2024 are largely treading water after the September FOMC minutes release where the Fed left interest rates on hold at a 22-year high of 5.25%-5.5%.
  • Officials continued to pencil in one additional rate increase this year in their Summary of Economic Projections. That was before a deepening selloff in longer-run Treasuries pushed 10-year yields to 16-year highs, a move some policymakers have since argued could be a substitute for additional rate hikes.
  • Current hike projections: November at 9.8% (compared to 30.5% late Fri), w/ implied rate change of +1.9bp to 5.348%, December cumulative of 7.6bp at 5.405%, January 2024 5.9bp at 5.387%. Fed terminal at 5.40% in Jan'24.
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