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Push Higher In 2024 Fed Rates Supporting Bear Flattening

STIR
  • The front-end led nature of today’s Treasury sell-off has seen a further boost over the past hour with Fed Funds implied rates pushing higher in a second wind after the initial reaction to the U.Mich beat rather than any specific headlines.
  • Whilst only a preliminary release, it builds on Waller’s hawkish take after the close yesterday, with very brief comments from a more dovish Goolsbee not seeing much market reaction.
  • Cumulative changes from 5.08% effective: +22.5bp Jul (+1p on the day), +26.5bp (+2bp), +32bp Nov terminal (+3bp)
  • Moves more notable in cut pricing further out: 5bp from terminal to Dec’23 (from 8bp yesterday), 76bp from terminal to Jun’24 (from 84bp) and 152bp from terminal to Dec’24 (from 164bp).


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