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Pushed To Multi-Week Lows After Aussie CPI Miss


AUD/NZD tested the water below the 38.2% retracement of the Dec 1 - Mar 29 rally at NZ$1.0745, which provided a layer of support last week, as below-forecast CPI data sapped strength from the Aussie. The rate failed to consolidate under that Fibo level and recovered a tad, but still trades 15 pips lower on the day, last at NZ$1.0758.

  • Australia's consumer price inflation accelerated to +1.1% Y/Y, falling short of the +1.4% forecast, while the key measure of core inflation slowed to the worst pace on record.
  • ANZ flagged that April has been a positive month for the Kiwi, with AUD/NZD returning below NZ$1.0800 despite stronger industrial commodity prices, as food and soft commodities have also been buoyant.
  • Implied vols have continued to creep higher. 1-month tenor sits at 4.84% after printing best levels in three weeks.
  • A clean break below the aforementioned Fibo level would allow bears to set their sights on Mar 9 low of NZ$1.0710. Conversely, a move through Apr 26 high of NZ$1.0802 would prompt bulls to take aim at Apr 19 high of NZ$1.0851.

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