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Putin Mobilisation Call Suggests Ukraine War to Drag Through Winter

RUSSIA
  • Putin confirmed speculation this morning that partial mobilization is now underway in Russia. This is confirmation that the war in Ukraine is likely to continue to drag through the winter.
  • Defence Minister Shoigu has stated that Russia is to mobilise 300,000 reservists, noting that this is only a fraction of Russia's troops available to be called up. The International Institute for Strategic Studies estimate that there are at least 2 million reserve personnel and 20 million former military personnel, 10% of whom have seen active service within the last five years.
  • Kommersant confirm that territories of Ukraine outside Kyiv’s control will hold referendums on whether to join Russia from 23-27 Sep. The US and Europe have already stated that they do not recognise "fictitious referendums". Lawyers note that if these territories are included in the Russian Federation, Moscow will be able to interpret attacks on them as aggression and take a whole range of response measures - from full or partial mobilization to a theoretical nuclear strike.
  • Elsewhere, the Federal Statistics Service will report August producer prices and 3Q consumer confidence later today. PPI is expected to cross at 4.0% Y/Y (Prior 6.1%), which would be the lowest print since Jan 2021. Weekly CPI data is also on the docket with all releases scheduled for 1700 BST (1900 local time).

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