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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessQ1 '24 RNS: Wage Growth Figures A Concern For Norges Bank
Expected wage data from the Norges Bank's Q1 2024 Regional Network Survey makes the wages-specific effect on next week's revised rate path a little unclear. We still expect the overall rate path to be revised lower though, with CPI-ATE 0.6pp below the Norges Bank projections in February.
- Respondents saw annual wage growth expectations revised up across all sectors, with aggregate 2024 wage growth seen at 4.9% Y/Y (vs 4.5% in the December 2023 survey).
- The largest rise was seen in the retail trade sector, with expectations rising to 4.8% Y/Y (vs 4.2% prior).
- This comes after the Wage Settlement Committee kept their average 2024 CPI estimate unchanged at 4.1% on Tuesday (vs Norges Bank's 4.4% forecast in the December MPR).
- There was once again a divergence between industries in the outlook for economic activity. Oil services respondents see a 1.0% Q/Q rise in employment and output in Q1 and Q2, while construction respondents expect sizeable falls.
- Retail and services respondents expect small Q/Q changes, leaving aggregate output expected at -0.1% Q/Q in Q1 and flat in Q2. Employment is seen rising 0.1% Q/Q in both quarters.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.