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Q1 '24 RNS: Wage Growth Figures A Concern For Norges Bank

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Expected wage data from the Norges Bank's Q1 2024 Regional Network Survey makes the wages-specific effect on next week's revised rate path a little unclear. We still expect the overall rate path to be revised lower though, with CPI-ATE 0.6pp below the Norges Bank projections in February.

  • Respondents saw annual wage growth expectations revised up across all sectors, with aggregate 2024 wage growth seen at 4.9% Y/Y (vs 4.5% in the December 2023 survey).
  • The largest rise was seen in the retail trade sector, with expectations rising to 4.8% Y/Y (vs 4.2% prior).
  • This comes after the Wage Settlement Committee kept their average 2024 CPI estimate unchanged at 4.1% on Tuesday (vs Norges Bank's 4.4% forecast in the December MPR).
  • There was once again a divergence between industries in the outlook for economic activity. Oil services respondents see a 1.0% Q/Q rise in employment and output in Q1 and Q2, while construction respondents expect sizeable falls.
  • Retail and services respondents expect small Q/Q changes, leaving aggregate output expected at -0.1% Q/Q in Q1 and flat in Q2. Employment is seen rising 0.1% Q/Q in both quarters.

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Expected wage data from the Norges Bank's Q1 2024 Regional Network Survey makes the wages-specific effect on next week's revised rate path a little unclear. We still expect the overall rate path to be revised lower though, with CPI-ATE 0.6pp below the Norges Bank projections in February.

  • Respondents saw annual wage growth expectations revised up across all sectors, with aggregate 2024 wage growth seen at 4.9% Y/Y (vs 4.5% in the December 2023 survey).
  • The largest rise was seen in the retail trade sector, with expectations rising to 4.8% Y/Y (vs 4.2% prior).
  • This comes after the Wage Settlement Committee kept their average 2024 CPI estimate unchanged at 4.1% on Tuesday (vs Norges Bank's 4.4% forecast in the December MPR).
  • There was once again a divergence between industries in the outlook for economic activity. Oil services respondents see a 1.0% Q/Q rise in employment and output in Q1 and Q2, while construction respondents expect sizeable falls.
  • Retail and services respondents expect small Q/Q changes, leaving aggregate output expected at -0.1% Q/Q in Q1 and flat in Q2. Employment is seen rising 0.1% Q/Q in both quarters.