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Q1 GDP Contraction Smaller Than Forecast, 2021 Outlook Revised Lower

THB

Spot USD/THB seems unfazed by a smaller than expected GDP contraction recorded in Q1. The rate last sits +0.045 at THB31.415.

  • The Thai economy shrank 2.6% Y/Y in Q1 after a 4.2% contraction in the final quarter of 2020, vs. BBG median forecast of a 3.3% fall. On a quarterly basis, GDP unexpectedly rose 0.2% Q/Q, while analysts expected it to fall 1.0%.
  • Despite above-forecast Q1 print, Thai NESDC slashed its 2021 GDP target range to +1.5%-2.5% Y/Y from +2.5%-3.5%, while also cutting the 2021 foreign tourist arrivals est. to 0.5mn, as Thailand continues to battle the resurgence of Covid-19.

Fig. 1: Thailand GDP Y/Y (%)

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg

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