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Q1 GDP Due Tomorrow

MEXICO
  • The flash estimate for Q1 GDP will be published tomorrow, with analysts expecting economic output to be unchanged over the quarter, following a 0.1% q/q increase in Q4. In annual terms, growth is expected to have edged down to 2.3% y/y, from 2.5%.
    • Itaú expect GDP to have risen by 1.0% y/y in Q1, with growth dragged down by an unfavourable calendar base effect due to the easter holidays, which resulted in three fewer working days. At the margin, they expect activity was flat, dragged by a weak print in January, offsetting a strong improvement in February and likely further expansion in March. Strong fiscal spending was likely the driver of activity in the last two months of the quarter.
    • JP Morgan also expect the advance GDP release to be poor, highlighting the weak start to the year. They forecast Q1 GDP growth at -0.2%q/q saar. However, as the data flow starts to improve they are more comfortable about their call for a big bounce in Q2, where they estimate a 4.2% annualised gain.
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  • The flash estimate for Q1 GDP will be published tomorrow, with analysts expecting economic output to be unchanged over the quarter, following a 0.1% q/q increase in Q4. In annual terms, growth is expected to have edged down to 2.3% y/y, from 2.5%.
    • Itaú expect GDP to have risen by 1.0% y/y in Q1, with growth dragged down by an unfavourable calendar base effect due to the easter holidays, which resulted in three fewer working days. At the margin, they expect activity was flat, dragged by a weak print in January, offsetting a strong improvement in February and likely further expansion in March. Strong fiscal spending was likely the driver of activity in the last two months of the quarter.
    • JP Morgan also expect the advance GDP release to be poor, highlighting the weak start to the year. They forecast Q1 GDP growth at -0.2%q/q saar. However, as the data flow starts to improve they are more comfortable about their call for a big bounce in Q2, where they estimate a 4.2% annualised gain.