Q1 Industry Survey Suggests H1 Growth Tailwind

Norwegian Q1 industrial confidence was neutral (i.e. 0.0) in Q1 ’24, after an upwardly revised -4.3 prior. The indicator thus remains below the historical average of 2.9.

• There are notable sectoral differences within Stats Norway's Industry survey, but the generally outlook for Q2 is positive in the manufacturing sector.
• Overall, the positive Q1 performance and Q2 outlook for capital goods businesses should provide a tailwind to GDP growth in the first half of ’24.
• Capital goods producers (dominated by businesses in the oil industry) expect a rise in production in Q2, while intermediate and consumer goods producers expect a fall in production.
• In Q1, capital goods businesses were responsible for an overall increase in employment while consumer/intermediate goods businesses saw falls in employment as well as new orders.
• Q1 price growth in domestic and export markets was reported amongst capital and consumer goods businesses, likely as a result of cost increases.
• Intermediate producers saw unchanged price pressures. However, the rate of price growth overall is slowing compared to previous quarters.