MNI China Daily Summary: Thursday, April 22

MNI BRIEF: China To Quicken Resolving Local Debt Risks

RPT-MNI INTERVIEW: ECB's Wunsch Sees At Least Two Cuts By Dec

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MNI: PBOC Conducts CNY2 Bln Via OMO Mon; Liquidity Unchanged

CHINA PBOC INJECTS CNY2 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS MON

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: 3/6-Month ATB Auction on Tuesday

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: EU, FI Synds; IT, DE Auctions Tues

MNI: CANADA MAR INDUSTRIAL PRICES +0.8% MOM; EX-ENERGY +0.8%

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

MNI: Growth Drag From Net Zero Carbon Goal Can Be Offset-OECD

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Q1 Survey Wage Expectations Roughly In Line With NB Forecast

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The Norges Bank's Q1 expectations survey saw expected 2024 wage growth roughly in line with the December MPR projections, while 2025 growth was a little softer than current projections. Overall, there isn't enough of a signal to change the near-term path of policy, where rates are expected to remain at 4.5% till at least Q3 '24 (per market pricing and general sell-side consensus).

  • Norges Bank forecasted wage growth at 5.0% Y/Y in 2024 and 4.3% Y/Y in 2025 in the December MPR.
  • In the Q1 Expectations survey, economists expect wage growth at 5.0% Y/Y in 2024 (vs 5.1% in Q4 '23) and 4.1% Y/Y in 2025 (vs 4.4% prior).
  • Social partners saw 2024 growth at 5.1% Y/Y (in line with Q4 '23) and 2025 growth at 4.2% Y/Y (vs 4.5% prior).
  • Business leaders' expectations were more moderate at 4.7% Y/Y in 2024 (vs 4.6% prior) and 4.2% in 2025 (in line with Q4 '23).
  • Finally, households expect their own wages and pension income growth at 3.3% Y/Y (vs 3.0% prior) in 2024.
  • A reminder that last Friday (Feb 16), the Norway Technical Calculation Committee for Income Settlements (TBU) estimated 2024 inflation at 4.1% Y/Y, which was lower than NB's December forecast of 4.4%. A more precise estimate of 2024 inflation from the TBU will be released on March 12, and will form the basis for 2024 wage negotiations which start on 15 March.
  • There was a larger range of inflation estimates in the survey, with economists expecting 12-month ahead inflation at 3.7% Y/Y, and business leaders expecting 4.9% Y/Y. The December MPR projected 4.4% Y/Y.
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The Norges Bank's Q1 expectations survey saw expected 2024 wage growth roughly in line with the December MPR projections, while 2025 growth was a little softer than current projections. Overall, there isn't enough of a signal to change the near-term path of policy, where rates are expected to remain at 4.5% till at least Q3 '24 (per market pricing and general sell-side consensus).

  • Norges Bank forecasted wage growth at 5.0% Y/Y in 2024 and 4.3% Y/Y in 2025 in the December MPR.
  • In the Q1 Expectations survey, economists expect wage growth at 5.0% Y/Y in 2024 (vs 5.1% in Q4 '23) and 4.1% Y/Y in 2025 (vs 4.4% prior).
  • Social partners saw 2024 growth at 5.1% Y/Y (in line with Q4 '23) and 2025 growth at 4.2% Y/Y (vs 4.5% prior).
  • Business leaders' expectations were more moderate at 4.7% Y/Y in 2024 (vs 4.6% prior) and 4.2% in 2025 (in line with Q4 '23).
  • Finally, households expect their own wages and pension income growth at 3.3% Y/Y (vs 3.0% prior) in 2024.
  • A reminder that last Friday (Feb 16), the Norway Technical Calculation Committee for Income Settlements (TBU) estimated 2024 inflation at 4.1% Y/Y, which was lower than NB's December forecast of 4.4%. A more precise estimate of 2024 inflation from the TBU will be released on March 12, and will form the basis for 2024 wage negotiations which start on 15 March.
  • There was a larger range of inflation estimates in the survey, with economists expecting 12-month ahead inflation at 3.7% Y/Y, and business leaders expecting 4.9% Y/Y. The December MPR projected 4.4% Y/Y.