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Q2 GDP Falls, Softer Domestic Demand Offsets Export Strength, Complicating BoK Outlook

SOUTH KOREA

South Korean GDP unexpectedly contracted in the June quarter contracting -0.2%q/q versus expectations of +0.1%.

  • Following a strong start to the year and a surge in demand for chip manufacturers this was an unexpected release. Consumption fell 0.2%q/q, while construction investment was also down -1.1%q/q, pointing to a soft domestic demand backdrop for the quarter.
  • This puts the BOK in an interesting position on providing support to the economy given surging home prices in Seoul raising concerns from a financial stability standpoint.
  • However, with the government forecasts for 2024 remaining robust, the Q2 number could merely be a short term blip on what will be a strong year for the Korean economy. Recall yesterday's consumer confidence print hit fresh multi year highs.

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