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Q3 APF Sales Schedule Due at 16:30BST / 11:30ET

BOE
  • The BOE will finish off a busy week for the UK today publishing its APF sales schedule for Q3 at 16:30BST.
  • Based on our estimates the BOE has around GBP11bln of active sales in initial proceeds terms to complete in the quarter in order to hit its target of reducing the balance sheet by GBP100bln.
  • This is a little bit of a slowdown from the GBP12.9bln sold in Q1-24 and the GBP12.7bln we estimate for Q2-24 (with one operation left next week).
  • We think that the last operation sizes will be tweaked again closer to the time (as it was last year) but that the BOE will initially look to hold 4 short-dated operations at an unchanged GBP800mln size, 4 medium-dated operations at an unchanged GBP750mln size and possibly three GBP400mln long-dated operations (smaller than the GBP600mln operations seen to date). This would see a more even split across the maturities.
  • We don’t think that there will be any real communication around the STR usage (possibly a one liners in the Minutes) or any updates on the equilibrium size of the balance sheet. We set out our views for a slowdown in active QT to around half the 2023/24 pace at GBP20-25bln in MNI UK Deep Dive: BOE Long-Term QT and FQ2 DMO Operations.
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