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Q3 ULC Growth Cools More Quickly Than First Thought

US DATA
  • Unit labor costs saw larger than expected downward revisions in the final Q3 release, now seen rising 2.4% Q/Q annualized (cons 3.1, initial 3.5) which extends to the softest seen since 1Q21.
  • The change came from both softer hourly compensation (3.2% revised from 3.8) and better labor productivity (0.8% revised from 0.3), although with the latter doing little to recover from an average 5% annualized plunge through 1H22.
  • Whilst the productivity revision is a step in the right direction for the Fed, it's moving at too slow a pace to meaningfully eat into the level of wage growth consistent with the 2% inflation target over the longer-term.

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