Q4 GDP Highlight Of The Week

The focus of the week will be on Wednesday’s Q4 national accounts, which will also include details on productivity and unit labour costs. It is likely to show that growth was soft at the end of 2023.

• Q4 inventories are released today and expected to be neutral. The other important component for GDP is Tuesday’s net export contribution which is currently forecast to be +0.2%. This release could change Q4 GDP forecasts with consensus currently at 0.3% q/q and 1.4% y/y down from Q3’s 2.1% y/y.
• The February Melbourne Institute inflation gauge is out today and printed at 4.6% in January, above the monthly CPI.
• Company profits for Q4 are published Monday and are forecast to rise 1.1% q/q after falling 1.3% in Q3. ANZ job ads are also released.
• January building approvals are today and projected to unwind some of December’s 9.5% m/m drop with a 4.0% increase. Housing finance is on Thursday and Bloomberg consensus is at +2.0% m/m.
• Q4 current account data are published on Tuesday and are expected to show a surplus of $5bn after posting a $0.2bn deficit in Q3. January trade data print on Thursday and are forecast to reveal a slight widening in the surplus to $11.5bn.
• Final Judo Bank composite/services PMIs for February are due on Tuesday. The preliminary release showed both indices returning into growth territory above 50.