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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
GERMAN DATA
German real GDP for Q4 2024 met market expectations by contracting -0.3% Q/Q (seasonal- and calendar-adjusted, vs -0.3% cons and 0.0% prior, revised from -0.1%). On a yearly (working day-adjusted) comparison, GDP declined -0.2% Y/Y (vs -0.2% cons and -0.3% prior, revised from -0.4%).
- This was the weakest reading since Q4 2022. Declines could be observed in construction and equipment investment in particular, according to Destatis.
- The upward revision to previous data including Q3 means that the German economy almost but didn't quite narrowly avoid a technical recession (two consecutive quarters of contraction - the Q3 seasonally/working-day adjusted index was 107.99 vs 108.00 in Q2). From a broader perspective, GDP has been basically flat since mid-2022 and is not far above end-2019 levels.
- Bloomberg median consensus for Q1 2024 going into today's release stood at +0.1% Q/Q but recent soft data suggests this might have to be reconsidered downwards. The IFO institute for example published a -0.2% Q/Q forecast earlier today.
- January's IFO business confidence release saw an unexpected weakening in the services sector, which had previously been relatively resilient. This mirrored the January Flash PMI, which additionally noted declining international demand as a key driver to Germany's recent economic slowdown.
MNI, Destatis
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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