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NORWAY: Q4 Wages Steady, But Deceleration Expected Through 2025

NORWAY
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Norwegian average monthly basic earnings (i.e. excluding one-off payments) growth was 5.2% Y/Y in Q4, steady from the prior quarter. This is in line with the 2024 wage norm struck by industrial unions last year, and thus is consistent with Norges Bank’s December MPR projections and the Q4 Regional Network Survey.

  • Including one-off payments, earnings growth was 5.3% Y/Y (vs 5.2% prior).
  • Across industries, mining and quarrying saw the largest increase in basic earnings growth in Q4 (5.6% Y/Y vs 4.3% prior), while agriculture, forestry and fishing marked the strongest outright Y/Y growth of 5.9% Y/Y (vs 5.2% prior).
  • Basic earnings growth in public administration, defence and social security eased to 2.5% Y/Y (vs 4.9% prior).
  • Looking ahead, Regional Network contacts expect wage growth to ease to 4.5% Y/Y in 2025, with Norges Bank forecasting a 4.2% Y/Y growth.
  • The 2025 union negotiations will be concluded over the next two months.

 

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Norwegian average monthly basic earnings (i.e. excluding one-off payments) growth was 5.2% Y/Y in Q4, steady from the prior quarter. This is in line with the 2024 wage norm struck by industrial unions last year, and thus is consistent with Norges Bank’s December MPR projections and the Q4 Regional Network Survey.

  • Including one-off payments, earnings growth was 5.3% Y/Y (vs 5.2% prior).
  • Across industries, mining and quarrying saw the largest increase in basic earnings growth in Q4 (5.6% Y/Y vs 4.3% prior), while agriculture, forestry and fishing marked the strongest outright Y/Y growth of 5.9% Y/Y (vs 5.2% prior).
  • Basic earnings growth in public administration, defence and social security eased to 2.5% Y/Y (vs 4.9% prior).
  • Looking ahead, Regional Network contacts expect wage growth to ease to 4.5% Y/Y in 2025, with Norges Bank forecasting a 4.2% Y/Y growth.
  • The 2025 union negotiations will be concluded over the next two months.

 

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