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Q&A Begins

FED
  • 1st Q: Should we read the statement as the FOMC is prepared to pause in June? Has Fed staff revised its forecast for a mild recession from the March minutes?
  • A: A decision on a pause was not made today. You'll notice that March's statement that said the committee anticipates that some additional policy firming may be appropriate. That is not in the statement any more, we took it out....that's a meaningful change that we we're no longer saying that we anticipate. We will be driven by incoming data meeting by meeting and we will approach that question at the June meeting.
  • Different people in the committee have different forecasts, that's my own assessment of the most likely path, it's independent of participants' forecasts. It's good that the staff and individual participants can have different perspectives. The forecast was for a mild recession. I wouldn't want to characterize the staff's foreecast for this meeting. But broadly similar to that.
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