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QCEW Employment Offers Tentative Clue Of Downward NFP Revisions

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  • The BLS today released its Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) for Q4, offering a more comprehensive estimate of total employment up to December.
  • Whilst this release doesn’t directly impact estimates for preliminary benchmark revisions for payrolls (that will come with the 1Q24 report on Aug 21), some might use it to offer directional clues.
  • QCEW employment was up 1.5% Y/Y in December vs 2.0% Y/Y in the current iteration of nonfarm payrolls employment in December.
  • The two measures of employment were similar back in 2Q23 (June saw QCEW 2.5% vs NFP 2.4%) but a gap opened up in Q3 (Sept saw QCEW 1.5% vs NFP 1.9%).
  • The softer employment growth in the QCEW is more in keeping with the-then-weakness in the household survey measure of employment, which has since weakened more notably.
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  • The BLS today released its Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) for Q4, offering a more comprehensive estimate of total employment up to December.
  • Whilst this release doesn’t directly impact estimates for preliminary benchmark revisions for payrolls (that will come with the 1Q24 report on Aug 21), some might use it to offer directional clues.
  • QCEW employment was up 1.5% Y/Y in December vs 2.0% Y/Y in the current iteration of nonfarm payrolls employment in December.
  • The two measures of employment were similar back in 2Q23 (June saw QCEW 2.5% vs NFP 2.4%) but a gap opened up in Q3 (Sept saw QCEW 1.5% vs NFP 1.9%).
  • The softer employment growth in the QCEW is more in keeping with the-then-weakness in the household survey measure of employment, which has since weakened more notably.