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Quarterly Inflation Report Published, BanRep Minutes Eyed

COLOMBIA
  • On Friday, Colombia’s central bank published the quarterly monetary policy report, where it raised the 2024 year-end inflation forecast to 5.9% from 4.04% in the previous report in October. The estimates for 2024 incorporate an El Nino weather phenomenon with moderate effects on food and energy prices as well as the implementation of taxes on processed food and fuel price rises. BanRep forecasts inflation to slow further to 2.76% by the end of 2025.
  • Focus turns to the central bank January meeting minutes, where markets will receive further details about the relatively hawkish majority voting in favour of maintaining the 25bp easing pace. The full MNI review of last week’s decision is here.
  • Separately, Moody’s Investors Service said they are closely monitoring how Colombia’s worsening fiscal situation will affect its long-term sustainability after the government said its budget deficit and debt will widen this year. They described Colombia’s room for manoeuvre as “very reduced”. For reference, Moody’s grades Colombia at Baa2, the second-lowest investment grade, with a stable outlook, while Fitch Ratings and S&P Global Ratings rate the Andean nation’s foreign debt as junk.
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