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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US OUTLOOK/OPINION
- The latest seasonal profile for CPI housing has seen some recent moderation in CPI rents but the more heavily weighted OER category has more broadly plateaued.
- With both still at ~0.4% M/M in December, they remain above the 0.3% print seen pre-pandemic that were more closely in line with inflation near target.
- It has been widely believed that CPI rent inflation will moderate as weaker new leases continue to feed through, especially with the BLS’s New Tenants Rent index at -4.7% Y/Y in Q4, but our Policy Team’s piece below offers some interesting alternate points.
- Of note, BLS economist Steve Reed said on the BLS’s NTR measure: "But every reason that you'd want to interpret it cautiously is here -- the fact it's subject to revision, the fact the sample is unusually small" because fewer people are moving in late fall and winter, whilst UBS’ Alan Detmeister, an economist at UBS who previously headed the wages and prices section at the Fed Board of Governors adds "It does seem like the move in the New Tenant Rent Index is probably a little outsized".
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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