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Notable Takeaways From Nov Analyst Survey

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  • Q: How does the FOMC see declining inflation / commod prices? How far into restrictive territory will rates need to go?
  • A: We've been saying we would move expeditiously to get to the range of neutral. I think we've done that now, at 2.25-2.5 and that's what we think is neutral.
  • Our focus will continue to be on using our tools to bring demand back into better balance with supply. Ongoing rate hikes will be appropriate and we'll make decisions meeting by meeting.
  • We're looking at incoming data. Are we seeing the slowdown in econ activity that we think we need? There is some evidence that we are, at this time.
  • Of course we'll be looking closely at inflation. We'll be looking at both headline and core. And asking, do we see pressures declining, do we see readings coming down? The question we'll be asking is whether the stance of policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation back to target.
  • These hikes have been large and have come quickly and it's likely their full effect hasn't been felt by the economy. There's probably significant additional tightening in the pipeline.
  • I think the FOMC broadly feels we need to get policy to a moderately restrictive level.

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