Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
The recent PredictIt betting market re-pricing of the odds of the Democrats taking the Senate in the upcoming U.S. election is getting some client attention this morning (see chart), and could be feeding into the defensive feel that has been witnessed at the start of the week. Hard to identify an outright driver to define the move in recent days, but there is a growing focus on the battleground states and the margin for error surrounding polls. It is also worth remembering that within some of the battleground states, some opinions polls have pointed to the early voting favouring Biden, while suggesting that those who are yet to vote are more likely to favour Trump e.g. CBS polls covering Georgia, Florida & North Carolina.
Fig 1: PredictIt Implied Probability Of The Democrats Taking The Senate In The 2020 Election
Source: Bloomberg/PredictIt
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.