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Quicktake: Citi on Infrastructure Bill, Debt Ceiling

US
Citi strategists on size, negotiations and timing of infrastructure bill:
  • Citi expects a "smaller-than-$3.5T party-line reconciliation package of closer to $1.5 trillion, more consistent with Manchin's desire for the package to be smaller and fully paid for.
  • Committees are working to meet a September 15th deadline to fill in details of the reconciliation package which should mean more public discussion of details of tax and spending plans.
  • The $550B bipartisan infrastructure bill is widely expected to pass in the House by the September 27 deadline guaranteed by Speaker Pelosi, but this is still subject to progressive Democrats feeling confident that a large-enough reconciliation package will pass in the House and Senate.
On the debt limit:
  • The early-November projected "hard" ceiling date may keep the debt limit on the back burner for another week. Democrats plan to discuss the legislative strategy for raising the debt ceiling on September 14.
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