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Quicktake: RBS on NFP

DATA REACT
On one hand, the weaker than expected Aug jobs gain of +235k vs. +725k est will forestall any announcement of tapering at the Sep FOMC, RBS/NatWest economists said. On the other, it's still a +235k gain -- not small enough for the Fed "to back away from their 'this year' signal either."
  • "Even with the slowing in August, the three-month average in total payrolls was still 750,000, well above the 487,000 average monthly gain registered in the first five months of this year, and still consistent with Powell's assessment last Friday when he said 'here has also been clear progress toward maximum employment'."
  • "At a minimum," RBS added, "today's payroll reading clearly removes any consideration for September action, and increases the probability of action at the December rather than the November FOMC meeting."
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