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Quicktake: TD and Citi on Funding/ Debt Ceiling Bill

US
Though House Democrats passed a dual stopgap funding (through Dec 3)/debt ceiling (through 2022) continuing resolution late Tuesday, Republicans remain
opposed to the CR as long as the two measures are intertwined.
  • TD analysts believe the "fight over the debt ceiling is likely to go down to the wire again as it is complicated by the partisan reconciliation bill and the need to fund the government past September 30th. We estimate that the debt ceiling X-date will be reached around the week of October 25th, leaving Congress little time to act.
  • TD said they expect the "debt ceiling to be raised by Democrats using reconciliation or by changing filibuster rules. However, this will likely necessitate a smaller partisan fiscal package, likely in the $1.5-2tn range."
  • Citi analysts expect the CR to fail in the senate with a shutdown "now the most likely outcome. The debt limit will likely be raised or suspended in early October, but market concern may grow in coming days as the prospect for a shutdown and uncertain debt ceiling resolution grow."
  • Citi posits the "infrastructure bill vote promised on September 27th looks increasingly likely to fail or be delayed, although the bill will most likely still pass into law."
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