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Quiet Start For Treasuries After Two Days of Bear Steepening

US TSYS

Tsys see minor bull flattening this morning (Ylds -0.4-1.0bp) in limited retracement from bear steepening of past two days. Limited data today but plenty of Fed speak and greater focus on Fed chair pick in the "next four days". Equities steady, -0.3% off recent highs yesterday (ESZ1 4694.5).

  • Biden says to expect Fed chair decision in "the next four days", although a BBG source later suggested it may slip into next week. The source pointed to a 2-horse race between Powell & Brainard (in line with broader expectations), further eroding Powell's early frontrunner status.
  • Multiple Fed speakers today: Williams (0910ET), Bowman (1100ET), Mester & Waller (1120ET), Daly & Waller (1240ET), Evans (1605ET) and Bostic (1610ET).
  • Quieter data day after yesterday's heavy schedule: building permits/housing starts for October expecting partial bounce back.
  • TYZ1 at 130-06 having briefly dipped below yesterday's low of 130-03 to 130-01+ (lowest since 22 Oct) before retracing, on low volumes.
  • 2-Yr yield down -0.4bps at 0.514%, 5-Yr flat at 1.265%, 10-Yr down -0.5bps at 1.628%, and 30-Yr is down -1.0bps at 2.019%. 2s/10s down fractionally today at 111bps, but up 6bps for the week.
  • Next scheduled NY Fed purchases: Tsy 22.5Y-30Y (appr $1.600B) on Thu 1010-1030ET, TIPS 1Y-7.5Y (appr $1.775B) on Fri 1010-1030ET.
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