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Rabobank: Another 25bp hike before “pause and re-assess”

BOE
  • The BOE “leans into an inflationary surge it has little control over and, as such, its policy remains hostage to fortune. In the press conference, which was dominated by questions on the real income squeeze, the policy makers seemed very aware of the numerous risks to growth.”
  • “The medium-term inflation forecasts suggest the peak in Bank rate might be much lower than the 1.50% the market is currently pricing. We forecast another 25 bps rate increase as soon as next meeting, before the MPC may decide it’s best to take a pause and re-assess.”
  • “If tight monetary policy is then used to weaken the current upward pressure on wage settlements, it may be just enough to tip the economy back into a recession.”
  • The market-based 3-year CPI projection “fell back to just 1.60% from 1.95% in November; this actually is the lowest rate since November 2011. It is a strong indication the MPC believes the market is far too aggressive in its pricing of rate increases”
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