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Rabobank Expect EUR/SEK to Pullback to 11.25 Over Three Months

SEK
  • Rabobank write on SEK that hawkish Riksbank statements and signs that the slump in property prices may be nearing an end have contributed to the better tone and suggests that the currency may have finally turned a corner. However, Sweden’s fundamental backdrop remains vulnerable suggesting that the SEK may not yet be completely out of the woods.
  • Risks remain to the outlook for property, not least because the Riksbank has signalled that rates will be going higher again this year. This suggests that stresses could increase further along with debt refinancing costs.
  • That said, EUR/SEK is trading at levels well above long-term averages and many technical indicators suggests that the SEK is oversold. On the assumption that news regarding the stresses faced by commercial property companies remains contained, they expect EUR/SEK to pull back to the 11.25 region on a 3-month view.
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