Raiffeisen 1Q24 Preview: Russian Sale To Drive Agenda

Raiffeisen Bank (RBIAV: A1/A-) results are due 2-May and the dominant theme is going to be updates on Russian and Belarus asset sales.

• Results on 31-Jan missed expectations on big provisions (Signa-related, reportedly) and the equity was hit hard on the day. However, the real narrative here is around the bank’s abortive efforts to sell business in Russia and Belarus.
• Our view is that, without “air cover” from the EU, the US will not allow the asset sales and the EU’s last indications were hawkish. On 18-Apr the ECB indicated it expected RBI to speed up wind-down of its businesses in Russia – hardly an indication it was about to wave through a sale process, we fear.
• Erste Bank results (30-Apr) were ahead of expectations but mgmt demurred from upgrading guidance, even though performance looked good across CEE. A positive operational lateral for RBI.
• Spreads have actually performed really well YTD (-49bp, €IG banks -38bp) whereas the equity been a very poor performer on these Russian stories (-7% YTD, SX7P +16%).
• Since 4Q23 results, EPS estimates have raised by 6-12%, but revenue expectations have barely moved.

Results are usually 0630 (London time) with conf calls that are, typically, 1300 with details at: https://www.rbinternational.com/en/investors.html