MNI BRIEF: Trump Likely To Let Powell Serve Full Term-Moore

MNI BRIEF: Canada Household Debt Tops $3 Trillion In 3Q

MNI BRIEF: Trump Likely To Allow Powell To Serve Term - Moore

MNI INTERVIEW2: Poland To Push For EU Defence Fund

MNI BRIEF: China To Keep Stabilising Housing Market - CEWC

MNI BRIEF: China Focus On Boosting Consumption In 2025

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: Belgium ORI Facility on Friday

US EIA:NAT GAS STORAGE -190 BCF TO 3,747 BCF DEC 06 WK

MNI: US JOBLESS CLAIMS +17K TO 242K IN DEC 07 WK

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

Rally Extends, Helped By Softer Details Undermining GDP Beat

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys sits 5.5-9bp richer on the day, bull steepening as 2s lead the rally in an extension of yesterday’s Waller-instigated rally. 2s10s of -37.5bps (+3.5bp) sits back at mid-Nov levels.
  • The day’s moves started with a bias from softer external inflation in Australia and Germany, and were further supported by softer than expected US core PCE inflation and real personal consumption growth despite an overall upward revision to real GDP growth to an even stronger 5.2% annualized in Q3 (from an initial 4.9%).
  • Fedspeak hasn’t provided any pushback, with Bostic (’24) seeing evidence that tighter monetary policy is biting harder into economic activity and Mester (’24 voter retiring in June) reiterating she sees Fed policy on a good footing. The Beige Book then went on to show moderation compared to the mid-October update across output, pricing and labor markets.
  • It sees Fed Funds futures firmly pricing a first cut in May (cumulative 28bp), with 50/50 odds it comes in March, building to a cumulative 117bp of cuts through 2024.
  • TYH4 at 110-09+ sits off the earlier high of 110-15+ but has marked another strong extension of the bull cycle. Focus is on 110-25, a Fibonacci projection, whilst initial key support has been defined at 108-18+ (Nov 27 low).
  • Tomorrow sees the monthly PCE report, weekly jobless claims, the MNI Chicago PMI and pending home sales, before Chair Powell swings into focus on Friday.
Homepagemarkets-real-timeBulletMarketsFixed Income Bullets
Homepagemarkets-real-timeBulletMarketsFixed Income Bullets

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.