MNI China Daily Summary: Wednesday, December 11

MNI BRIEF: Chinese Rail Passenger Numbers Break Record

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY37.3 Bln via OMO Wednesday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1843 Weds; -1.22% Y/Y

MNI BRIEF: Brazil Not Even Close To Fiscal Dominance - David

CORRECTED-MNI BRIEF: Brazil Inflation Rises To 4.87% In Nov

MNI: US MBA: MARKET COMPOSITE +5.4% SA THRU DEC 06 WK

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: 4.25% Jul-34 Gilt Due Wednesday

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: 12-Month BOT Auction on Wednesday

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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Rally Slows With Slight Paring Of Risk-Off and 3Y Supply Ahead

US TSYS
  • Treasuries continue to see a solid bid on the day, with the day's net risk off sentiment (S&P e-mini off lows but still -0.5% on the day) adding to spillover from well-received European supply early.
  • Cash yields sit between 4.5-5.5bps lower on the day, with the front end seeing a little more support with a move off lows in equities plus attention on the upcoming 3Y sale.
  • TYM4 sits within 1-2 ticks off an earlier high of 109-21, with cumulative volumes lagging recent averages for the time of data having only just ticked over 1mln.
  • Resistance is seen at 110-06 (Apr 4 high) but a bearish trend structure remains with support at 109-00 before 108-25+ (Fibo projection).
  • Fed Funds futures have seen a build in cut expectations from new recent lows of 61bps for 2024 overnight, but at 67bps remain below the 75bps median FOMC dot. There is a cumulative 15bp of cuts priced for June with July only just fully priced.
  • Tomorrow's US CPI report (preview here) and FOMC minutes remain firmly in focus.
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