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Ramsden on differences in BOE and OBR forecasts

BOE
  • Ramsden asked on the divergence between BOE and OBR growth forecasts.
  • He says we have seen more resilience this year than we were expecting, but we have seen a zero print in Q4 and the BOE's forecast is for growth to flatline as restrictive monpol weighs on demand. Says the OBR do have growth picking up more strongly next year but still subdued.
  • He says one thing that distinguishes BOE forecasts is they see weak potential supply - weak growth is possible without triggering inflation. The UK has had very weak productivity growth and the labour supply has been very weak. Lots of sickness in the economy (particularly compared to pre-Covid). Also the difference between vacancies and the skills of those looking for jobs. Says OBR has taken a slightly more positive view on those aspects.
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