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ZAR: Rand Loses Ground Amid Musings On Trump Tariffs

ZAR
EM BulletBulletEmerging Market News

USD/ZAR has snapped a two day losing streak after hitting 18.5 and last deals at 18.6732, over 1,300 pips above neutral levels. The pair is on the front foot amid strong performance from the greenback, with the BBDXY adding 0.5% thus far. A clearance of Jan 13 high of 19.2296 would open up Apr 23 high of 19.2696. Bears keep an eye on 18.4323, which limited losses on Jan 6.

  • SARB Governor Kganyago said that the trade policies of the new US administration could be inflationary and in that case "the reduction in the restrictiveness of monetary policy that we had seen over the past year could then be brought to an abrupt halt." The Governor pointed to other upside risks to the inflation outlook, including a weaker rand and higher energy prices, but also said that a good crop output could reduce price pressures.
  • The government extended a revised 5.5% wage-hike offer to public servants as parties moved closer to reaching a final deal. Civil service unions initially demanded a 12% hike, but the latest offer is still notably above the current +2.9% Y/Y inflation rate.
  • Against this backdrop, the focus turns to December CPI data, due for release tomorrow morning. In the meantime, Statistics SA will release November mining production data at 09:30GMT/11:30SAST.
  • Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana said that the government is working to implement structural reforms that could help South Africa regain investment-grade credit rating within two years.
  • SAGB yields have ticked lower. South Africa's 5-year and 10-year breakeven inflation rates sit at 4.1% and 5.49% at typing.
  • The composite BBG Commodity Index has shed 0.4%, the precious metals subindex has dropped by 0.4%.
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USD/ZAR has snapped a two day losing streak after hitting 18.5 and last deals at 18.6732, over 1,300 pips above neutral levels. The pair is on the front foot amid strong performance from the greenback, with the BBDXY adding 0.5% thus far. A clearance of Jan 13 high of 19.2296 would open up Apr 23 high of 19.2696. Bears keep an eye on 18.4323, which limited losses on Jan 6.

  • SARB Governor Kganyago said that the trade policies of the new US administration could be inflationary and in that case "the reduction in the restrictiveness of monetary policy that we had seen over the past year could then be brought to an abrupt halt." The Governor pointed to other upside risks to the inflation outlook, including a weaker rand and higher energy prices, but also said that a good crop output could reduce price pressures.
  • The government extended a revised 5.5% wage-hike offer to public servants as parties moved closer to reaching a final deal. Civil service unions initially demanded a 12% hike, but the latest offer is still notably above the current +2.9% Y/Y inflation rate.
  • Against this backdrop, the focus turns to December CPI data, due for release tomorrow morning. In the meantime, Statistics SA will release November mining production data at 09:30GMT/11:30SAST.
  • Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana said that the government is working to implement structural reforms that could help South Africa regain investment-grade credit rating within two years.
  • SAGB yields have ticked lower. South Africa's 5-year and 10-year breakeven inflation rates sit at 4.1% and 5.49% at typing.
  • The composite BBG Commodity Index has shed 0.4%, the precious metals subindex has dropped by 0.4%.