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Rand Marginally Firmer Amid Uptick In Gold, Downtick In USD

ZAR

A downtick in the BBDXY has facilitated light USD/ZAR sales this morning, with the pair struggling to test yesterday's lows. The pair last deals at 19.0159, only marginally below neutral levels, with a familiar technical picture still in play. Bears look for losses towards Apr 9 low of 18.4131, while bulls keep an eye on Feb 23 high of 19.3899.

  • A new Reuters poll found that the SARB is now expected to lower the repo rate by just 50bp this year, which will be split into two 25bp cuts, one in either July or September and one in November. A hawkish correction to the US rate outlook limits the room for the SARB to loosen policy alongside South African central bank's own rigorous approach to its inflation mandate.
  • The composite BBG Commodity Index has inched higher (+0.1%), with the precious metals subindex outperforming (+0.3%). Gold trades around $18.2/oz. higher on the session when this is being typed.
  • SAGBs are firmer across the curve, with 10-year breakeven inflation rate extending its sharp pullback to last sit at 7.02%.
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