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Rand Partially Recovers This Week’s Losses Amid Moderate Uptick in Gold

ZAR
The fade in the USD index off its highs is assisting the move lower in USDZAR, while intraday strength in gold, which touched a new weekly high in recent trade, is likely accounting for rand outperformance within the EMEA region. But despite today’s ~0.5% move lower, we still sit slightly higher on the week overall after the rally on Monday/Tuesday resulted in a brief breach of the 19.00 handle, affirming the more bullish technical theme.
  • Support at 18.5578, the Feb 2 low, has recently been pierced. A clear break would open 18.2550, the Dec 29 low. While USDZAR has traded on either side of the 50-day EMA this week, a clear break on the topside could expose key resistance at 19.3899, the Feb 23 high. That average intersects today at 18.8721.
  • CPI data came in a touch above expectations this morning (+5.6% vs. +5.5% expected), with higher services inflation the main driver behind the stronger print. Nevertheless, USDZAR had little initial reaction on immediate release of the data, with expectations firm for the SARB to stand pat on rates next week.
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