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Rand Ticks Lower, Election Saga Remains Front & Centre

ZAR
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Spot USD/ZAR trades at 18.7596, around 470 pips above neutral levels, amid an uptick in the BBDXY Index. Discussions of possible coalition scenarios (both within the ANC and between the biggest party and others) continue to steal the limelight locally. From a technical standpoint, bulls look for gains past 19.0659, the 76.4% retracement of the Apr 19 - May 21 bear leg. On the downside, the focus is on 20-EMA at 18.5289.

  • The aggregate BBG Commodity Index has added 0.2%, catching a breather after a five-day sharp decline, during which it shed around 5%. The precious metals subindex sits 0.3% higher on the day, with gold trading around $7/oz. better off.
  • SAGB curve has bear steepened in morning trade, with US Tsy yields also sitting higher at typing. South Africa's 10-year breakeven inflation rate has climbed to 6.78%, but otherwise stays within a familiar range.
  • South Africa's S&P Global PMI was little changed in May, printing at 50.4 vs. April's 50.3. However, S&P's Senior Economist David Owen wrote that "the index nonetheless offered further signs that the private sector economy is recovering."
  • On the data front, the focus turns to BER Business Confidence, due at 11:00BST/12:00SAST.
  • As a reminder, the SARB will release its Financial Stability Review this afternoon.
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Spot USD/ZAR trades at 18.7596, around 470 pips above neutral levels, amid an uptick in the BBDXY Index. Discussions of possible coalition scenarios (both within the ANC and between the biggest party and others) continue to steal the limelight locally. From a technical standpoint, bulls look for gains past 19.0659, the 76.4% retracement of the Apr 19 - May 21 bear leg. On the downside, the focus is on 20-EMA at 18.5289.

  • The aggregate BBG Commodity Index has added 0.2%, catching a breather after a five-day sharp decline, during which it shed around 5%. The precious metals subindex sits 0.3% higher on the day, with gold trading around $7/oz. better off.
  • SAGB curve has bear steepened in morning trade, with US Tsy yields also sitting higher at typing. South Africa's 10-year breakeven inflation rate has climbed to 6.78%, but otherwise stays within a familiar range.
  • South Africa's S&P Global PMI was little changed in May, printing at 50.4 vs. April's 50.3. However, S&P's Senior Economist David Owen wrote that "the index nonetheless offered further signs that the private sector economy is recovering."
  • On the data front, the focus turns to BER Business Confidence, due at 11:00BST/12:00SAST.
  • As a reminder, the SARB will release its Financial Stability Review this afternoon.