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Rand Underperforms Versus EMEA Peers, USDZAR Nears Mid-December Highs

ZAR
  • Equity weakness and the lingering risk-off tone across global markets continues to weigh on the EM FX basket, with weakness in the commodities complex and a softer-than-expected domestic retail sales print likely accounting for rand underperformance within the EMEA space.
  • USDZAR reached a high of 19.1335 earlier in the session, where it narrowed the gap to resistance at 19.1386, the Dec 11 high. A break of this level would strengthen a bullish theme and signal scope for a climb towards 19.6399, the Oct 6 high.
  • While price has since moderated to around 19.05, the pair still stands 0.45% in the green at typing, bringing its YTD gains to 3.65% (only the Israeli Shekel has lost more ground against the dollar out of the major EMEA currencies).
  • Given the relatively thin local data slate for the remainder of the week, attention will turn to the US data later today as well as appearances from Fed’s Barr, Bowman and Williams. Looking ahead, CPI data is on the docket next Wednesday ahead of the SARB meeting next Thursday.
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