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Range Bound, As Demand/Supply News Flows Offsets

OIL

Oil prices are a little lower in the first part of Friday dealing. Brent front month contracts sit near $84.75/bbl, off around 0.40%. Earlier lows were just under $84.50/bbl. At this stage, Brent is tracking 0.30% lower for the week. WTI front month was last $82.35/bbl, off 0.60% at this stage, but still slightly above end levels last Friday.

  • Broader trends in oil remain within recent ranges. For Brent we are close to the key EMAs, with the 200-day just under $84/bbl. Earlier lows this week came in at $83.30/bbl. July 12 highs rest at $86.35/bbl.
  • Earlier moves in oil reflected a firmer USD backdrop, although we have moved away from best levels. This is keeping a cap on upside momentum, while prospects of easier Fed policy, coupled with signs of tighter supply earlier this week (after the EIA reported an unexpected crude draw) is keep dips supported.
  • The other focus points for markets is the Third Plenum on China, where headlines point to efforts to boost domestic demand, but details remain light at this stage.
  • Finally, wildfires in Canada are being watched as a possible supply threat (see this BBG link).
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