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Ranges Respected As Markets Gear for Fed

FOREX
  • The JPY is the weakest currency across G10 early Monday, with markets gearing for the Fed rate decision later this week. Nonetheless, price action is generally muted with ranges being respected across DM FX. EUR/USD saw an swift dip on the back of a lower-than-expected IFO survey, but losses were short-lived and the pair sits slightly higher pre-NY crossover.
  • Scandi currencies are the early outperformers, with USD/SEK trading just above last week's lows of 10.149. A break through here opens the 50-dma support at 10.129 and the lowest levels since late June.
  • A number of ECB speakers have been on the tape this morning, defending last week's rate decision and suggesting further tightening is still to come. ECB's Kazaks noted that big interest rates across the Eurozone may not be over, and the September hike needs to be "quite significant". Meanwhile, Visco touched on the newly unveiled TPI tool, warning that Italian bond yield spreads are much higher than fundamentals can justify.
  • Chicago Fed National Activity Index data crosses later today, but the central bank speaker slate remains quiet given the Fed's media blackout ahead of Wednesday's rate decision.
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