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Rapid Electrification Drawing Chinese Demand Peak Closer


China’s gasoline demand peak is drawing closer according to Sinopec comments earlier this month and BloombergNEF analysis. Sinopec place Chinese gasoline peak in 2023, brought forward by two years versus prior outlooks, citing a surging increase in electric vehicles.

  • EV adoption rates in China are now soaring, with August figures likely to show plug-in vehicles hitting 38% of new passenger-vehicle sales according to Bloomberg, up from 6% in 2020.
  • Electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids are expected to displace 15 million tons of oil products this year, Zhou Yan, an official with Sinopec’s retail fuel sales unit, said at a conference in Zhengzhou earlier this month.
  • In June, China National Petroleum Corp. estimated the nation’s use of transport fuels would peak in 2025. The country’s biggest oil and gas producer also forecast gasoline demand would likely exceed 2019 levels this year.
  • The internal combustion vehicle fleet is also becoming more efficient due to rising fuel-economy targets. Also, ride sharing vehicles are increasingly more likely to be electric and are the sort of vehicles that face much higher utilization than regular cars.
  • BloombergNEF expects total oil demand for road transport in China to peak late next year.

source: BloombergNEF

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