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Rate Pricing Fades, 200bp In Further Hikes Seen

ECB

ECB rate pricing is seen peaking in July 2023 at 2.68%, down 20bp today and 52bp from the Sept 26 peak.

  • Futures imply about 200bp in further hikes in this cycle, including 125bp over the final 2 meetings in 2022 (down 9bp today and 23bp from Sept 26th high).
  • There hasn't been any particular newsflow to drive today's retracement in ECB mid-2023 pricing - it largely mirrors similar moves across G10 rates - see chart.

Source: BBG, MNI

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ECB rate pricing is seen peaking in July 2023 at 2.68%, down 20bp today and 52bp from the Sept 26 peak.

  • Futures imply about 200bp in further hikes in this cycle, including 125bp over the final 2 meetings in 2022 (down 9bp today and 23bp from Sept 26th high).
  • There hasn't been any particular newsflow to drive today's retracement in ECB mid-2023 pricing - it largely mirrors similar moves across G10 rates - see chart.

Source: BBG, MNI