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US TSYS: Rate Sale Falters in Leadup to December Employment Data

US TSYS
USBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsNorth America
  • Treasury futures looked to finish Thursday's shortened session mildly higher, off early highs as longs squared ahead of Friday's headline December employment and UofM sentiment data.
  • Nonfarm payrolls growth is seen at circa 160k in December as some recent distortions from hurricanes and strikes are increasingly in the rear-view mirror, and with a relatively narrow range to analyst estimates. The unemployment rate is broadly seen holding at 4.2%, although at an unrounded 4.246% in November it wouldn’t surprise if it rounded to 4.3%. A ‘high’ 4.3% would still be notable, though, for a fresh recent high.
  • Challenger job cut announcements continued their recent run of Y/Y increases in December, and were at the high end of recent Decembers, but don't show any signs of a sharp increase. Challenger job cuts increased 11% Y/Y to 38.8k in December, rounding out a year that saw Y/Y job cut announcements stabilize/fall a touch in 1H24 before climbing again in 2H24.
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  • Treasury futures looked to finish Thursday's shortened session mildly higher, off early highs as longs squared ahead of Friday's headline December employment and UofM sentiment data.
  • Nonfarm payrolls growth is seen at circa 160k in December as some recent distortions from hurricanes and strikes are increasingly in the rear-view mirror, and with a relatively narrow range to analyst estimates. The unemployment rate is broadly seen holding at 4.2%, although at an unrounded 4.246% in November it wouldn’t surprise if it rounded to 4.3%. A ‘high’ 4.3% would still be notable, though, for a fresh recent high.
  • Challenger job cut announcements continued their recent run of Y/Y increases in December, and were at the high end of recent Decembers, but don't show any signs of a sharp increase. Challenger job cuts increased 11% Y/Y to 38.8k in December, rounding out a year that saw Y/Y job cut announcements stabilize/fall a touch in 1H24 before climbing again in 2H24.