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Rates Back Near Lows Despite Weaker ISMs

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures finishing the shortened pre-holiday session at/near lows, accounts scaling back support despite early session data showed disinflationary signs.
  • Treasury futures extend highs slightly after S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI comes out as expected at 46.3, not a large reaction.
  • Treasury futures extended highs after June ISM Manufacturing falls to 46.0 vs. 46.9 est (47.2 prior) the lowest since May 2020. Prices paid at 41.8 lower than exp 44.2, ISM Employment at 48.1 lower than expected 51.4. Meanwhile, Construction Spending MoM lower than expected at +0.9% vs. 1.2% est.
  • Front month 10Y futures marked 112-17.5 high (+9) before falling back to111-29.5 after the early close. Initial technical resistance at 112-21 Jun 22 low, 113-18 June 15 High key resistance.
  • Later in the week, FOMC minutes for the June meeting are released at 1400ET Wednesday, while the latest employment data is released this Friday at 0830ET, current mean est at 225k vs. 339k prior.

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