MNI BRIEF: Bank Of Italy Downgrades 2024 Inflation Forecast

CANADA MAR JOBLESS RATE 6.1% VS FORECAST 5.9%, PRIOR 5.8%

MNI: Canada Wages Up 5% Even With Highest Jobless Rate In 2Yrs

MNI BRIEF: Monetary, Fiscal Policy Need Harmony - Campos Neto

CORRECTED-MNI: Changing Brazil Fiscal Target Not "Plan A"

MNI BRIEF: PBOC To Curb Any Overshooting Of The Yuan-MPC

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: Germany and France Bills Due Monday

US MAR AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS +0.3% Vs FEB +0.2%; +4.1% YOY

MNI: US MAR NONFARM PAYROLLS +303K; PRIVATE +232K, GOVT +71K

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

MNI: Growth Drag From Net Zero Carbon Goal Can Be Offset-OECD

MNI BRIEF: Lawmakers Signal Tough Hearing For BOC's Macklem

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Rates Back on the Downswing

US TSYS SUMMARY

Rates swung back to weaker levels Wednesday, near late session lows to around mid-range for the week, curves rebound from prior session flattening (2s10s +1.191 at 25.288; 5s10s +.534 at -.823. Current 10YY back over 3% at 3.0289% +.0553; 30YY at 3.1782 +.0537.

  • It appears as if markets are trying to anticipate "either runaway inflation (stagflation) or a train wreck of a recession, with nothing in between," one desk quipped. "That puts 10yr forecasts in a range of 4+% and 2%," they jokingly estimated.
  • Focus on Friday's May CPI (0.7% est vs. 0.3% prior), while futures traded lower (still off early session lows) after $33B 10Y note auction (91282CEP2) reopen tails yet again: 3.030% high yield vs. 3.017% WI; 2.41x bid-to-cover off last month's 2.49x.
  • No react to Tsy Sec Yellen testimony again: "I SEE NO WAY IN WHICH INFLATION IS A DECADE-LONG MATTER" Bbg.
  • SEC head Gary Gensler targeting payment for order flow as he speaks remotely for Piper Sandler conference: "Outlines Other Possible Changes to Stock-Market Rules" WSJ.
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