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MNI CBR Preview - September 2024: Room to Hold

Executive summary:

  • There is no clear consensus over the outcome of this month’s CBR meeting.
  • While rising inflation expectations could warrant an additional 100bp hike, economic activity data has shown some signs of slowing down, which should provide the central bank room to keep its key rate unchanged at 18% instead.
  • In any case, the Bank is widely expected to maintain its hawkish tone given the reiterated need for higher-for-longer rates. 

See the full preview, with a summary of sell-side analyst views, here:

MNICBRPrevSept24.pdf

Since the previous rate decision, inflation data has continued to point to strong demand-side pressure, with the August figure coming in at +9.05% Y/Y, only marginally lower compared to the +9.13% in July. Meanwhile, the core indicator remained firm at +8.44% Y/Y. 

However, activity data has begun to show signs of easing, with latest figures showing wage growth and retail lending rising at a slower pace in July compared the previous month.Meanwhile, the Bank of Russia’s composite indicator of business confidence fell to 5.7ppts in August compared to 6.8ppts in July, with broad weakness expected for the coming months.

MNI (LONDON)

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