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MNI CBR Preview - September 2024: Room to Hold

Analysts are divided over whether the central bank will keep its key rate unchanged at 18% or deliver another hike.
CEEMEAAnalysisEM Central Bank ReportsRussiaEM Central Bank PreviewCEMEA Bank- PreviewGlobalStoryRegionBank of Russia - Preview

Executive summary:

  • There is no clear consensus over the outcome of this month’s CBR meeting.
  • While rising inflation expectations could warrant an additional 100bp hike, economic activity data has shown some signs of slowing down, which should provide the central bank room to keep its key rate unchanged at 18% instead.
  • In any case, the Bank is widely expected to maintain its hawkish tone given the reiterated need for higher-for-longer rates. 

See the full preview, with a summary of sell-side analyst views, here:

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Executive summary:

  • There is no clear consensus over the outcome of this month’s CBR meeting.
  • While rising inflation expectations could warrant an additional 100bp hike, economic activity data has shown some signs of slowing down, which should provide the central bank room to keep its key rate unchanged at 18% instead.
  • In any case, the Bank is widely expected to maintain its hawkish tone given the reiterated need for higher-for-longer rates. 

See the full preview, with a summary of sell-side analyst views, here:

Keep reading...Show less