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Rates Higher, Curves Steeper on Lower Than Expected Flash PMIs

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures hold moderately higher after the bell, curves near session highs with the short end outperforming late (2s10s +3.870 at -32.625). Currently, Jun'24 10Y futures are trading 108-01 (+5.5) vs. 108-08 post-auction high, still well below initial technical resistance of 108-22.5 (High Apr 19).
  • Lower than expected flash PMI data helped Treasuries gap higher early Tuesday while a strong 2Y note auction saw futures extend session highs early in the second half. S&P Global US PMIs were softer than expected in preliminary April data, with mfg at 49.9 (cons 52.0) after 51.9 and services at 50.9 (cons 52.0) after 51.7. Stronger than expected new home sales tempered rate support as March marked 693k saar vs 668k prior.
  • In-line with firmer rates and steeper curves, projected rate cut pricing moved off recent lows: May 2024 -2.6% w/ cumulative -0.6bp at 5.322%; June 2024 at -16.2% vs. -13.6% this morning w/ cumulative rate cut -4.7bp at 5.282%. July'24 cumulative at -13.6bp vs. -11.1bp earlier, Sep'24 cumulative -25.6bp vs. -21.1bp.
  • Look ahead: Wednesday data calendar includes Durable/Capital Goods, Tsy Auctions.
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